World population expected to dramatically decline, new study reveals
Researchers have unveiled a startling prediction - the world's population is poised to decline for the first time since the bubonic plague pandemic of the mid-1300s, due to plummeting birth rates worldwide.
Researchers have unveiled a startling prediction - the world's population is poised to decline for the first time since the ravages of the Black Death due to plummeting birth rates worldwide.
A study conducted by medical journal Lancet, and released by The Daily Telegraph, highlights a significant slowdown in global population growth, which hovers just above eight billion.
However, contrary to the current growth trend, projections suggest a potential reversal in trajectory, indicating a decline in the coming decades.
If realised, this would mark the first population decrease since the catastrophic bubonic plague pandemic of the mid-1300s, which claimed the lives of up to 50 million individuals, decimating nearly a third of Europe's population.
The report underscores a critical threshold: the average number of children each woman must have to sustain population growth, known as the "total fertility rate".
As of 2021, this rate stood at 2.23 worldwide, slightly surpassing the replacement level of 2.1.
However, experts caution that this figure is on a steady decline, having plummeted from 4.84 in 1950.
Projections indicate a further decrease to 1.83 by 2050 and a staggering 1.59 by 2100.
Several countries are already experiencing the effects of declining birth rates, such as South Korea, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Bhutan, where women are forecasted to have fewer than one child on average.
In the UK, fertility rates are dwindling, dropping from 2.19 in 1950 to 1.49 in 2021.
